emini analysis 18th August 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
See yesterday’s highlighted comments. Following Wednesday’s rejected probe of First Level Resistance (2474) – ES sold off sharply on Thursday. A lower, wider Value Area was generated and Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) was marked. ES closed the session below 2436.50 (7mn poc), First Level Support, and pre-open remains below that level in a weak price location. The Pulse Chart remains weak – currently daily price momentum for SPY is negative and down and the Breadth indicator is red. Breadth numbers weakened again, see below.
First Level Support/Resistance = 2436.50 (7mn poc)
There is previous poc Support at 2353.00 but this is not a major level.
Sentiment:My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 11.76 (from 12.42). Last week Bull fund assets that I follow reached the highest level for the year to date. On 06/30 the ratio reached 15.21, the highest in the database. The ratio reaching a new high has historically been a warning for the market.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 40% (from 47%), Nasdaq 32% (from 39%), R2000 29% (from 36%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – since mid-May TLT has been printing above 121.63, the 8mn poc, in a strong price location.
Dollar Index: 07/14 broke below the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc, and then fell sharply. Chart remains below that level in a weak LT price location.
Gold: GLD is printing back above 119.84, the maj poc in a strong LT price location. Cash Gold has today reached its highest level since November.
Oil: USO – the major poc has migrated lower from 11.44 to 10.14. USO is printing below that level in a weak price location.
GBPUSD: as long as chart holds above 1.278, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location in the LT but in the ST, 1.2936, the 5mol.nth poc Support was broken on Monday which put the chart in a weaker ST position.
EURUSD: in early July EURUSD found higher low Support at 1.1329, the maj poc and has rallied strongly from there. Earlier this month chart reached its highest level since early 2015.
USDJPY: 111.30 is now the 2year poc. Currently the chart prints below that level in a weak price location. 108.87 is the 1/2R off 2016 low and has provided Support three times this year. Price breaking this proven Support would be an indication of further weakness.
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