emini analysis 18th May 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
ES opened Wednesday’s session below 2385 (which “was” the 1month poc), see Monday’s highlighted comments. Pre-open yesterday enough time was spent at 2385 to migrate the 3month poc to that level. I have previously noted that the minor distribution “looks complete and I’m assuming a new directional move will begin”, and with yesterday’s Aggressive Selling” it appears a new distribution has begun. That red-at-bottom low means new long trades are eliminate for me. There is no obvious Time Support that is close so I’m pretty cautious here but there is a new 3month VAL at 2347 (dashed line) – a rejected test of that VAL and Significant Buying (green) being marked would be the most optimistic development. Pre-open today 2347 has been briefly tested. Next level of Time Support is down at 2265 (the 10mn poc).
Bonds have moved stronger, breadth numbers have deteriorated and the Rydex Ratio increased. These are not positives for equities.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 11.04. On a big down like yesterday that lack of fear from the Rydex traders is not usually a bullish sign. On 1st March the ratio reached 14.02, the second highest ratio in the database.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 39% (from 51%), Nasdaq 41% (from 55%), R2000 36% (from 51%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – now printing back above 121.63, the 8mn poc, in a strong price location.
Dollar Index: rallied back from the March low to probe 101.00, the major poc, in early April. That probe into Resistance was rejected. Chart remains in a weak price location.
Gold: recently GLD broke below119.84, the maj poc, and sold off but has recovered to probe that poc on Wednesday. Time above that level would put GLD back in a strong price location.
Oil: USO – The 1/2R off 2016 low at 10.06 was recovered this week. Bulls would want to see USO printing time above that level. Key chart.
GBPUSD: In the LT, as long as chart holds above above 1.2478, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location. Has today printed its highest level since October.
EURUSD: last month the chart tested the Support at 1.0597, the 7mn poc, and held. Has rallied from there. Earlier today printed its highest level since November.
USDJPY: last week tested the Resistance at 113.61, the 4mn poc, but that test looks to have been rejected.
click to enlarge graphic
