emini analysis 19th April – pre-open from Chartprofit
Early last week the three month poc migrated to 2353. Price below that level is weak location. On Thursday the 3month VAL at 2334 (dashed line) was tested. ES has rallied a little from there but should price be accepted around 2334 (rather than rejected) it would likely be a negative indication. Note that on Thursday, Aggressive Selling was marked but when the high of that day was exceeded on Monday it negated any short term negative implications of that imbalance.
Key chart SPY: printing below 236.18, the 3mn poc, in a weak price location.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 9.26 (from 11.28). On 1st March the ratio reached 14.02, the second highest ratio in the database.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 46% (from 47%), Nasdaq 40% (from 41%), R2000 43% (from 41%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – early last week TLT closed above 121.63, the 8mn poc. It closed on Tuesday at its highest level since early November.Key Chart.
Dollar Index: rallied back from the March low to probe 101.00, the major poc, early last week. That probe into Resistance appeares to have been rejected.
Gold: early last week GLD closed above 119.84, the maj poc, and has since held that level (Support).
Oil: USO – The Support at 10.06 (1/2R off 2016 low) was reached mid-March and held. USO rallied from there and is printing above 10.84, the 1/2R Resistance off last year’s high. In the LT if chart is printing below the major poc at 11.44 (which it is), the chart is in a weak price location. Key chart.
GBPUSD: printed above 1.2478, the maj poc, for four days and on Tuesday surged higher.
EURUSD: last week tested the Support at 1.0597, the 7mn poc, and held. Chart is in a strong price location if it holds above that level.
USDJPY: has been printing below 113.61, the 4mn poc, in a weak price location since early March.
click to enlarge graphic
