emini analysis 19th March 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked on Friday 03/09, see chart, but last week ES printed below the low of that day which negated the ST bullish implication of that imbalance. The minor (now 17day) poc at 2757.50 is worth monitoring at the start of this week. Price relative to this level could provide an indication of ST strength/weakness. For now the probe above 2760, the 4mn VAH (dashed line), has failed but as I have written previously – price acceptance at this higher level would be bullish. In the LT, ES needs to hold 2686 (7mn) to remain in a strong price location.
Resistance (minor) = 2757.50 (17day)
Support 1 = 2718.00 (3mn)
Support 2 = 2686.00 (7mn)
Market Charts: Nyse turned negative; Nasdaq & R2000 stayed positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 44%, Nasdaq 58%, R2000 57%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 20.72. The Ratio fell to 10.94 on 02/15, a four month low. The Ratio reached 27.55 on 01/30, the highest in the database.
Bonds: TLT – 02/07 TLT broke below 119.00, the maj poc, and had been printing below that level since then – until last week. Time printed above 119 would be a positive.
Dollar Index: 12/28 broke below the 1/2R Support off the Sep low and then broke the September low. There is Support at 87.25 which is the 1/2R off 2008 low. There is now a 3mn poc at 89.59 and the index currently prints just above that level.
Gold – GLD: closed the week below 125.23, the 4mn poc.
Oil: USO – 01/25 chart reached its highest level since November 2015 but fell from there with the equity sell-off. Remains in a strong LT price location above 11.41, and on Friday closed above 12.30, the 4mn poc.
GBPUSD: The 5mn poc is now at 1.3965 and the chart is currently printing above that level in a strong price location.
EURUSD: the 3mn poc is now at 1.2409, and chart currently prints below that level.
USDJPY: two failed probes into the 113.70 maj poc Resistance in December and has been printing below 111.30, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location since then. Earlier in the month the chart broke below the 1/2R off the 2016 low which further weakened the price location and 03/02 printed its lowest level since Nov 2016.
