emini analysis 19th May 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
As noted yesterday ES had tested the 3month VAL at 2347 before the open. During the session ES rallied a little and enough time was spent at 2353 to migrate the 4month poc to that level. This gives us a close level of Time Support which is useful. It also means the VAL at 2347 is no longer valid. Time printed below 2353 would be an indication of further weakness – Significant Buying (green) marked above that level would be the first sign of strength. New longs eliminated for me until that happens. There is minor Resistance at 2374.50 which is the 1/2R off the recent high – the rally off yesterday’s low stalled at this level.
minor Resistance = 2374.50 (1/2R off this week’s high)
First Level Support = 2353 (4mn poc)
Second Level Support = 2265 (10mn poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 10.96. No fear indicated yet by the Rydex traders which is not usually a bullish sign if the market has sold off sharply. On 1st March the ratio reached 14.02, the second highest ratio in the database.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 41% (from 39%), Nasdaq 43% (from 41%), R2000 38% (from 36%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – now printing back above 121.63, the 8mn poc, in a strong price location.
Dollar Index: rallied back from the March low to probe 101.00, the major poc, in early April. That probe into Resistance was rejected. Chart remains in a weak price location.
Gold: recently GLD broke below119.84, the maj poc, and sold off but recovered to probe that poc (Resistance) on Thursday. Time above that level would put GLD back in a strong price location.
Oil: USO – The 1/2R off 2016 low at 10.06 was recovered this week. Bulls would want to see USO printing time above that level. Key chart.
GBPUSD: In the LT, as long as chart holds above above 1.2478, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location. On Thursday printed its highest level since October.
EURUSD: last month the chart tested the Support at 1.0597, the 7mn poc, and held. Has rallied from there. Has today printed its highest level since November.
USDJPY: last week tested the Resistance at 113.61, the 4mn poc, but that test looks to have been rejected.
click to enlarge graphic
