emini analysis 1st March 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
See previous, highlighted, comments. Intraday numbers were mixed on Tuesday. Those based on price were neutral to slightly positive but the tick numbers were clearly negative. We saw this previously on 02/14 and the following day was up. Based on tick, yesterday was a selling day with a lower Value Area – Effective Selling in the dayframe but only resulted in brief probes of the minor (20day) poc Support at 2360. Therefore just Reactive Selling in the longer timeframe.
First Level Support = 2360.00 (20 day7 poc)
Key Charts: IWM has been printing above 136.70, the 2mn poc, for three weeks. It’s important that the chart holds this level.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 9.67. On 2nd Feb the ratio reached 12.15, the highest since May 2015.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 59% (from 64%), Nasdaq 52% (from 61%), R2000 49% (from 57%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Supporting Charts
Bonds: TLT – the major poc is at 119.00. Since early January the chart has been consolidating above that Support which must hold if TLT is to maintain a strong price location. Futures indicate a sharply lower open for TLT today.
Dollar Index: found Resistance twice in February at 101.52, the 1/2R off the Jan high. Chart has today broken above that level at the third attempt.
Gold: in early February GLD broke back above 115.69, the 1/2R off last year’s low, and has since held above that level. This week chart has briefly probed above the Resistance at 119.84, the major poc, but has so far been rejected from that level. Cash indicates a lower open for GLD.
Oil: USO – the major poc is at 11.44 and is important to monitor. USO will likely open very close to that level today.
GBPUSD: the 15mn poc is at 1.2478. Chart currently prints below that level on a 28day low.
EURUSD: chart is printing below 1.0597, the 7mn poc.
USDJPY: The 1/2R off the 2015 high comes in at 112.47. Chart is currently printing back above that level.
click to enlarge graphic
