emini analysis 1st March 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
See previous, highlighted, comments. Last week the Support at 2686 (3mn) was briefly tested outside of session hours and has held so far. The last eight Value Areas have been generated entirely above this level. The last four Value Areas have also been printed above 2718, the minor (1mn) poc, see chart, which means ES currently prints above any important Resistance. However, the Breadth numbers deteriorated again yesterday – all fell below 50 on Tuesday as we noted. The Breadth section of the Pulse Chart has also deteriorated, i.e. is now red. Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) was marked on Wednesday but this is Reactive in the longer timeframe, i.e. marked above 2686. Overnight and again pre-open the 1/2R Support at 2704 has been tested but has held so far.
Support 1 = 2718.00 (1mn)
Support 2 = 2686.00 (3mn) Support 3 = 2581.00 (6mn)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 27% (34%), Nasdaq 36% (from 43%), R2000 28% (from 36%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 17.93.. The Ratio fell to 10.94 on 02/15, a four month low. The Ratio reached 27.55 on 01/30, the highest in the database.
Bonds: TLT – 02/07 TLT broke below 119.00, the maj poc which is a weak position. Has been printing below that level since then. Bond Sentiment is very bearish at the moment which may set up a contrarian bullish stance but risk of further declines remains high if TLT is below 119.00.
Dollar Index: 12/28 broke below the 1/2R Support off the Sep low and then broke the September low. There is Support at 87.25 which is the 1/2R off 2008 low. Has printed a six week high today.
Gold – GLD: The 2mn poc is at 126.60 and currently chart is printing below that level in a weaker ST position. Cash gold indicates a lower open for GLD today.
Oil: USO – 01/25 chart reached its highest level since November 2015 but fell from there with the equity sell-off. Remains in a strong LT price location above 11.41, the maj poc but this week a probe above 12.78, the 3mn poc was rejected.
GBPUSD: The 2mn poc is at 1.3955, and currently the chart prints below that level in a ST weaker position.
EURUSD: is today printing below 1.2264, the 2mn poc having broken that level on Wednesday. Bulls would want to see that level quickly recovered.
USDJPY: two failed probes into the 113.70 maj poc Resistance in December and has been printing below 111.30, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location since then. Earlier in the month the chart broke below the 1/2R off the 2016 low which further weakened the price location and 02/16 printed at its lowest level since Nov 2016.
