emini analysis 20th April 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Please read previous comments. During Wednesday’s session the three month poc migrated lower to 2341 (from 2353). Unless ES rallies back above that level it is in a weak price location. Overnight (I am writing this five hous pre-open) ES prints close to that level. At current levels I would want to see Significant Buying (green) marked above 2341 before considering the long side. Note: we have been monitoring 2334 as the 3month VAL; this level is no longer valid.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 10.16 (from 9.26). On 1st March the ratio reached 14.02, the second highest ratio in the database.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 46% (unch), Nasdaq 43% (from 40%), R2000 45% (from 43%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – early last week TLT closed above 121.63, the 8mn poc. It closed on Tuesday at its highest level since early November. Key Chart.
Dollar Index: rallied back from the March low to probe 101.00, the major poc, early last week. That probe into Resistance appeares to have been rejected.
Gold: early last week GLD closed above 119.84, the maj poc, and has since held that level (Support).
Oil: USO – The Support at 10.06 (1/2R off 2016 low) was reached mid-March and held. USO rallied from there to print above 10.84, the 1/2R Resistance off last year’s high, but has broken back below that level.In the LT if chart is printing below the major poc at 11.44, the chart is in a weak price location. Key chart.
GBPUSD: printed above 1.2478, the maj poc, for four days and on Tuesday surged higher.
EURUSD: last week tested the Support at 1.0597, the 7mn poc, and held. Chart is in a strong price location if it holds above that level.
USDJPY: has been printing below 113.61, the 4mn poc, in a weak price location since early March.
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