emini analysis 20th December 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
As mentioned before I try to answer two questions from the profile analysis. 1) Who is Active? 2) Are they Effective? On the dayframe (the minor timeframe) Sellers were Active last Thursday (red-at-bottom). Was this Selling Effective? An overlapping/lower Value Area means yes, but only on the minor timeframe. In the longer timeframe the Value Area was generated above the most recent controlling price and therefore Ineffective; or Reactive Selling only. The same thing can be said for yesterday’s Aggressive Selling day.
First Level ST Support = 2624.00 (minor poc)
First Level LT Support = 2573.50 (3mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 63% (from 68%), Nasdaq 58% (from 61%), R2000 55% (from 63%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 16.82. The ratio reached 18.34 on 10/31, the ratio in the database.
Bonds: TLT – the 10mn poc Support is at 124.40. Two weeks ago this Support was closely approached but held. TLT was sharply lower on Tuesday and futures indicate another lower open today for TLT.
Dollar Index: in early July chart broke below 95.50, the major poc Support. Chart is currently printing close to 93.46, the 8mn poc Support.
Gold: printing below 120.90, the maj poc in a weak price location.
Oil: USO – recently the major poc migrated higher to 11.41. The migration of a maj poc often preceeds a directional move. USO closed just above that level on Tuesday.
GBPUSD: currently printing above 1.3234 (1/2R) in a strong price location. The 9mn poc is at 1.2925 and this is LT Support.
EURUSD: has tested the 1 year poc Support at 1.1755 and held so far.
USDJPY: Key Chart – late November the chart tested the Support at 111.30, the 2year poc, and held. Rallied from there to probe (but not exceed) the 113.70 maj poc Resistance.
click to enlarge graphic