emini analysis 20th January 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
The four month poc at 2265.00 continues to attract time. Price relative to this level is important to monitor and could be Support or Resistance intraday today. There has been no significant Buying (green) or Selling (red) marked for twelve days and this lack of directional commitment has resulted in overlapping Value Areas, see chart, market is looking for the next catalyst. Forty minutes pre-open ES is printing above 2265.00. Obviously this could be a volatile day. Significant Selling marked below that point would be a negative.
First Level Support/Resistance = 2265.00 (4 month poc)
Second Level Support = 2159.50 (6month poc)
Momentum (PriceOsc): on the SPY chart is positive but has turned lower (see Pulse chart). The indicator remains negative on the IWM chart.
Sentiment: Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 8.69. The Ratio reached 11.83 on 01/03, the highest ratio since June 2015.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 63% (from 70%), Nasdaq 53% (from 61%), R2000 51% (from 60%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Supporting Charts
Bonds: TLT – last week the major poc migrated higher to 121.60. TLT closed below that level on Wednesday and was lower on Thursday – weak price location.
Dollar Index: On 01/03 the index printed its highest level since April 2003. On Tuesday printed a 28 day low.
Gold: 11/23 GLD broke below 115.69, the 1/2R off last year’s low which put the chart in a weak price location. This level was briefly probed on Tuesday but closed below it on Wednesday and Thursday. Cash gold has also stalled at 1210.38 which is its equivalent 1/2R Resistance. Price above these levels would be stronger location.
Oil: USO – since the start of December USO has been printing above 10.78, the maj poc. Chart must hold this Support to remain in a strong price location.
EURUSD: in early October chart broke below 1.1165, the 4yr poc, and has been in a weak price location since then. On 01/03 printed its lowest level since early 2003.
click graphic to enlarge
