emini analysis 20th March 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Friday generated a second Value Area inside the range of Wednesday’s session. Wednesday’s green-at-top has not yet been tested – they usually are (80% of the time) within a day, or two. As long as ES holds above 2367 it is in a strong price location.
Dayframe: There is minor Resistance today at 2378.50, the 5day poc. Price relative to that level today and the Support at 2367.00 could give a clue re intraday strength/weakness.
First Level Support = 2367.00 (2month poc)
Key Chart IWM finished the week above 136.70, its 2mn poc. Bulls would want to see this level hold.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio finished the week at 10.44 down from 14.02 recorded 1st March which was the second highest ratio in the database.
Market Charts: Nyse remained negative; Nasdaq and R2000 remained neutral.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 57%, Nasdaq 55%, R2000 52%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Supporting Charts
Bonds: TLT – the major poc is at 119.00. Since early January the chart was consolidating above that Support but two weeks ago broke back below that level. Printed a new low for this decline on Monday last week but has rallied a little. Price back above 119 would be a positive.
Dollar Index: fell heavily on Wednesday last week and is now printing back below 101.00, the 6mn poc, in a weaker price location.
Gold: on Wednesday chart rallied back above 115.69, the 1/2R off last year’s low which is stronger price location and held that level through Friday.
Oil: USO – earlier this month spent four days printing below 11.44, the major poc and then fell sharply to its lowest level since November. Weak price location. Key chart. Oil may be a problem for equities.
GBPUSD: the 15mn poc is at 1.2478. Chart has been printing below that level for three weeks. Tested and held the Support at 1.2112, the 1/2R off the October low and rallied last week but still in a weak price location below the 15mn poc.
EURUSD: chart is currently printing above 1.0597, the 7mn poc Support.
USDJPY: The 1/2R off the 2015 high comes in at 112.47. Chart is currently printing just above that Support.
click to enlarge graphic
