emini analysis 20th March 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
On Monday ES opened below 2757.50, the minor poc, and immediatley sold off to test the 3mn poc (2718) and the 1/2R (2708) – see yesterday’s highlighted comments. By the close of the day session these levels had been recovered and pre-open today ES has printed as high as 2729. In the LT, ES needs to hold 2686 (7mn) to remain in a strong price location.
Resistance (minor) = 2757.50 (18day)
Support 1 = 2718.00 (3mn)
Support 2 = 2686.00 (7mn)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 37% (from 44%), Nasdaq 54% (from 58%), R2000 52% (from 57%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 22.81, the highest since early February and there are only six readings higher than this in the database. A higher ratio on a notable down day is not usually an encouraging pattern in the ST. The Ratio reached 27.55 on 01/30, the highest in the database.
Bonds: TLT – 02/07 TLT broke below 119.00, the maj poc, and had been printing below that level since then – until last week. Time printed above 119 would be a positive.
Dollar Index: Since 02/21 the index has been consolidating above 89.59, the 3mn poc, which is a minor sign of strength. If that level is broken there is Support at 87.25 which is the 1/2R off 2008 low.
Gold – GLD: closed on Monday below 125.23, the 4mn poc.
Oil: USO – 01/25 chart reached its highest level since November 2015 but fell from there with the equity sell-off. Remains in a strong LT price location above 11.41, and on Monday closed above 12.30, the 4mn poc.
GBPUSD: The 5mn poc is now at 1.3965 and the chart is currently printing above that level in a strong price location.
EURUSD: the 3mn poc is now at 1.2409, and chart currently prints below that level.
USDJPY: two failed probes into the 113.70 maj poc Resistance in December and has been printing below 111.30, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location since then. Last month the chart broke below the 1/2R off the 2016 low which further weakened the price location and 03/02 printed its lowest level since Nov 2016.
