emini analysis 21st February 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Aggressive Buying was marked twice last week as ES rallied back from the previous week’s sharp decline. SPY has managed to retrace more than half its losses from the high. The minor (1month) poc migrated to 2735 on Tuesday. This is now Resistance. A Value Area printed above this level would be a positive. The last three Value Areas have be generated entirely above 2686, the 3mn poc. Bulls would want to see that pattern continue. In the longer term the 5mn Support at 2581 is the level to watch. A Value Area printed below that level would be an indication of further weakness on that timeframe.
Resistance = 2735 (1mn)
Support 1 = 2686.00 (3mn)
Support 2 = 2581.00 (5mn)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 32% (from 37%), Nasdaq 40% (from 47%), R2000 32% (from 40%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 17.58 (up from 15.93). The Ratio fell to 10.94 last Thursday, a four month low. The Ratio reached 27.55 on 01/30, the highest in the database.
Bonds: TLT – for eight days TLT has been printing below 119.00, the maj poc which is a weak position.
Dollar Index: in early July chart broke below 95.50, the major poc = weak LT price location. 12/28 broke below the 1/2R Support off the Sep low and then broke the September low. Last week the index printed its lowest level since December 2014. There is Support at 87.25 which is the 1/2R off 2008 low.
Gold – GLD: in mid December the major poc migrated back up to 121.00 – the chart rallied strongly from there and on 01/25 printed its highest level since August 2016. On Tuesday GLD closed below 126.60, the 2mn poc and Bulls would want to see chart recover back above that level.
Oil: USO – 01/25 chart reached its highest level since November 2015 but fell from there with the equity sell-off. Remains in a strong LT price location above 11.41, the maj poc.
GBPUSD: 01/25 reached its highest level (1.4344) since June 2016. Has dipped from there but remains in a strong price location.
EURUSD: in December chart tested the 1 year poc Support at 1.1755 and held.Last week broke above the January high to print its highest level since December 2014. Off from there but currently holding above 1.2264, the 2mn poc, in a strong price location.
USDJPY: two failed probes into the 113.70 maj poc Resistance in December and has been printing below 111.30, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location since then. Earlier in the month the chart broke below the 1/2R off the 2016 low which further weakened the price location and last week printed at its lowest level since Nov 2016.
