Pre-open emini analysis Thursday 21st July
Wednesday’s session generated a higher Value Area, albeit narrow on low volume. The whole session was printed above 2156 (minor poc) see yesterday’s comments. Price printing back below that level would be the first sign of weakness. In the LT as long as price is above 2087 (major poc) it is in a strong price location.
First Level Support = 2087.00 (major poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 79% (from 78%), Nasdaq 74% (from 71%), R2000 79% (from 77%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 5.44. Last Thursday’s ratio at 5.97 was a six month high. Bear fund assets fell to a seven month low last week.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: having hit a new high on Friday 07/08, TLT closed sharply lower last week. Futures have printed an eighteen day low today.
Dollar Index: currently printing above 96.21, the 1/2R off the December high in a strong price location.
Gold: GLD printed a two year high in the week ending 07/08. Last week was lower and chart printed a fifteen day low on Wednesday but as long as it holds above 118.22 (maj poc) it is in a strong price location in the LT.
Oil: USO – the 9mn poc migrated back down to 10.78 last week and USO must hold this level to maintain a strong price location. Futures indicate a higher open today.
EURUSD: printing below 1.1313, the 4yr poc and currently printing just below 1.11, the 1/2R off last year’s low in a weak price location.
click graphic to enlarge
