emini analysis 21st June 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Aggressive Selling was marked (red-at-bottom) and the 2434.50 (6wk poc) Support was tested but in the longer timeframe this activity can be considered Reactive because Tuesday’s Value Area (like Monday’s) was generated entirely above the poc. Overnight and pre-open ES has been printing below 2434.50 in a weaker price location and a Value Area printed below this level would be a first sign of weakness.
Minor Support/Resistance = 2434.50 (minor poc)
First Level LT Support = 2384 (5mn poc)
Second Level LT Support = 2353 (poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 11.86. Monday’s ratio at 12.2 was a 33day high. On 1st March the ratio reached 14.02, the second highest ratio in the database.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 56% (from 62%), Nasdaq 53% (from 58%), R2000 53% (from 60%). Numbers >50 are supportive
Bonds: TLT – closed on Tuesday at its strongest level since November.
Dollar Index: rallied back from the March low to probe 101.00, the major poc, in early April. That probe into Resistance was rejected. Chart remains in a weak price location. Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc.
Gold: closed on Tuesday below 119.84, the maj poc. GLD needs to recover this level to regain a strong price location.
Oil: USO – printing below 10.28, the 4mn poc, in a weak price location. On Tuesday printed its lowest level in more than a year. Key chart. Oil could become a problem for equities.
GBPUSD: as long as chart holds above 1.2478, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location in the LT.
EURUSD: in April EURUSD tested the Support at 1.0597, the 7mn poc, and held. Has rallied from there. Resistance is at 1.1329, the maj poc.
USDJPY: In early May the Resistance at 113.61 (4mn poc) was tested, but that test was rejected. Chart is still in a weak price location.
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