emini analysis 22nd February 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Wednesday’s session saw ES higher from the open to probe the Resistance at 2735, see yesterday’s highlighted comments. From there it sold off but the Value Area was higher/overlapping. Overnight the Support at 2686 (3mn) was briefly tested and ES is currently printing close to 2704 (the min 1/2R). The last four Value Areas have been generated entirely above 2686 and Bulls would want to see that pattern continue. In the longer term the 6mn Support at 2581 is the level to watch. A Value Area printed below that level would be an indication of further weakness on that timeframe.
Resistance = 2735.00 (1mn)
Support 1 = 2686.00 (3mn) Support 2 = 2581.00 (6mn)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 31% (from 32%), Nasdaq 44% (from 40%), R2000 37% (from 32%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 18.56. The Ratio fell to 10.94 last week, a four month low. The Ratio reached 27.55 on 01/30, the highest in the database.
Bonds: TLT – for eight days TLT had been printing just below 119.00, the maj poc which is a weak position. On Wednesday chart broke lower and closed just above the March 2017 low.
Dollar Index: in early July chart broke below 95.50, the major poc = weak LT price location. 12/28 broke below the 1/2R Support off the Sep low and then broke the September low. There is Support at 87.25 which is the 1/2R off 2008 low.
Gold – GLD: in mid December the major poc migrated back up to 121.00 – the chart rallied strongly from there and on 01/25 printed its highest level since August 2016. On Tuesday and Wednesday GLD closed below 126.60, the 2mn poc and Bulls would want to see chart recover back above that level.
Oil: USO – 01/25 chart reached its highest level since November 2015 but fell from there with the equity sell-off. Remains in a strong LT price location above 11.41, the maj poc.
GBPUSD: 01/25 reached its highest level (1.4344) since June 2016. Has dipped from there but remains in a strong price location.
EURUSD: Last week chart broke above the January high to print its highest level since December 2014. Off from there and has today briefly tested 1.2264, the 2mn poc. Bulls would want to see that level hold.
USDJPY: two failed probes into the 113.70 maj poc Resistance in December and has been printing below 111.30, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location since then. Earlier in the month the chart broke below the 1/2R off the 2016 low which further weakened the price location and last week printed at its lowest level since Nov 2016.
