emini analysis 22nd March 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Reactive Selling (red-at-top) and Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) were both marked on Tuesday. An early probe above 2378.50, the minor poc was rejected and ES immediately sold-off. Tuesday’s Value Area was generated entirely below 2367 (now First Level Resistance) – this was Effective Selling. Not a good day. If ES prints below 2367 it is in a weak price location. Red-at-bottom lows are tested 80% of the time within a day, or two.
First Level Resistance = 2367.00 (2month poc)
Key Chart: IWM sold off sharply and closed well below 136.70, its 2mn poc in a weak price location.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 10.0 (from 10.72). Down from 14.02 recorded 1st March which was the second highest ratio in the database.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 41% (from 53%), Nasdaq 39% (from 52%), R2000 33% (from 46%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Supporting Charts
Bonds: TLT – the major poc is at 119.00. Two weeks ago broke back below that level but has closed back above it this week. Now back in a strong price location. Key Chart.
Dollar Index: fell heavily on Wednesday last week and is now printing back below 101.00, the 6mn poc, in a weaker price location. Has printed a 32day low today.
Gold: last Wednesday chart rallied back above 115.69, the 1/2R off last year’s low which is stronger price location and has held that level.
Oil: USO – earlier this month spent four days printing below 11.44, the major poc and then fell sharply to its lowest level since November. Weak price location. Key chart. Oil may be a problem for equities.
GBPUSD: the 15mn poc is at 1.2478. Chart tested that level on Tuesday but has not printed significant time above it.
EURUSD: chart is currently printing above 1.0597, the 7mn poc Support and on Tuesday printed a 33day high.
USDJPY: The 1/2R off the 2015 high comes in at 112.47. Chart is printing below that level and has today printed its lowest level since November.
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