emini analysis 23rd August 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Value Areas on Friday and Monday were printed entirely below 2436.50 (7mn poc) – an indication of weakness. Tuesday’s VA was printed entirely above that level, and I wrote yesterday that “would be the first minor positive”, see highlighted comments – and Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked, which is another positive. However, the Pulse Chart remains weak – currently daily price momentum for SPY is negative and down and the Breadth indicator is red. And see Sentiment, below.
Also, upon checking the minor price distributions using various timeframes I noticed that on a 5minute sampling, the 2mn poc had migrated to 2464.50. This is First Level Resistance.
First Level Resistance = 2464.50 (2mn poc)
First Level Support = 2436.50 (7mn poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was spiked higher to 15.64 which is the highest in the database. The ratio reaching a new high has historically been a warning for the market.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 35% (from 37%), Nasdaq 35% (from 30%), R2000 31% (from 28%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – since mid-May TLT has been printing above 121.63, the 8mn poc, in a strong price location.
Dollar Index: 07/14 broke below the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc, and then fell sharply. Chart remains below that level in a weak LT price location.
Gold: GLD is printing back above 119.84, the maj poc in a strong LT price location. On Friday cash Gold reached its highest level since November.
Oil: USO – the major poc has migrated lower from 11.44 to 10.14. USO is printing below that level in a weak price location.
GBPUSD: as long as chart holds above 1.278, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location in the LT but in the ST, 1.2936, the 5month poc Support was broken last week which put the chart in a weaker ST position.
EURUSD: in early July EURUSD found higher low Support at 1.1329, the maj poc and has rallied strongly from there. Earlier this month chart reached its highest level since early 2015.
USDJPY: 111.30 is the 2year poc. Currently the chart prints below that level in a weak price location. 108.87 is the 1/2R off 2016 low and has provided Support three times this year. Price breaking this proven Support would be an indication of further weakness.
click graphic to enlarge
