emini analysis 23rd February 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
During Thursday’s session the minor (1mn) poc migrated to 2718. Price relative to this level may be useful to monitor today. Thirty minutes pre-open ES prints very close to this level.Significant Buying (green) marked above 2718 would be a positive.
The Support at 2686 (3mn) was briefly tested overnight on Wednesday but has so far held. The last four Value Areas have been generated entirely above this level but a VA printed below that price would suggest a retest of the 6mn Support at 2581. A Value Area printed below 2581 would be an indication of further weakness on the longer timeframe.
Support/Resistance today = 2718.00 (1mn)
Support 1 = 2686.00 (3mn) Support 2 = 2581.00 (6mn)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 32% (from 31%), Nasdaq 41% (from 44%), R2000 34% (from 37%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 19.0. The Ratio fell to 10.94 last week, a four month low. The Ratio reached 27.55 on 01/30, the highest in the database.
Bonds: TLT – 02/07 TLT broke below 119.00, the maj poc which is a weak position. Condolidated for a few days below that level and on Wednesday chart broke lower.
Dollar Index: in early July chart broke below 95.50, the major poc = weak LT price location. 12/28 broke below the 1/2R Support off the Sep low and then broke the September low. There is Support at 87.25 which is the 1/2R off 2008 low.
Gold – GLD: in mid December the major poc migrated back up to 121.00 – the chart rallied strongly from there and on 01/25 printed its highest level since August 2016. Last three days GLD has closed below 126.60, the 2mn poc, and Bulls would want to see chart recover back above that level.
Oil: USO – 01/25 chart reached its highest level since November 2015 but fell from there with the equity sell-off. Remains in a strong LT price location above 11.41, the maj poc.
GBPUSD: 01/25 reached its highest level (1.4344) since June 2016. Has dipped from there but remains in a strong price location.
EURUSD: Last week chart broke above the January high to print its highest level since December 2014. Off from there and briefly tested 1.2264, the 2mn poc. Bulls would want to see that level hold.
USDJPY: two failed probes into the 113.70 maj poc Resistance in December and has been printing below 111.30, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location since then. Earlier in the month the chart broke below the 1/2R off the 2016 low which further weakened the price location and last week printed at its lowest level since Nov 2016.
