emini analysis 25th April 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
from 11th April “the current distribution which began in February may be complete/near completion and a new distribution will begin. There has been no directional conviction recently (no Significant Buying or Selling marked) – that may change soon. ”
ES opened strongly higher on Monday. Bulls would now want to see ES holding above 2353 (the three month poc) and a big positive would be Significant Buying marked above that price. The three month Value Area high is at 2371 (dashed line) and ES has probed that level. If the three month distribution is still developing then 2371 will be Resistance. However if price pushes higher it would indicate a new distribution has begun and indicate higher. If price stalls and prints enough time close to 2371 to migrate the poc to this level I would view that with caution.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 10.16. On 1st March the ratio reached 14.02, the second highest ratio in the database.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 59% (from 50%), Nasdaq 59% (from 49%), R2000 63% (from 52%.) Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – earlier in the month TLT closed above 121.63, the 8mn poc and rallied from there to reach its highest level since early November. Key Chart.
Dollar Index: rallied back from the March low to probe 101.00, the major poc, earlier in the month. That probe into Resistance was rejected. Chart remains in a weak price location.
Gold: earlier in the month GLD closed above 119.84, the maj poc, and has since held that level (Support).
Oil: USO – The Support at 10.06 (1/2R off 2016 low) was reached mid-March and held. USO rallied from there to print above 10.84, the 1/2R Resistance off last year’s high, but has broke back below that level last week. In the LT if the chart is printing below the major poc at 11.44 it is in a weak price location. Key chart.
GBPUSD: printed above 1.2478, the maj poc, for four days and on Tuesday last week surged higher and has held the higher levels.
EURUSD: earlier in the month chart tested the Support at 1.0597, the 7mn poc, and held. Chart has been in a strong price location above that level and on Monday rallied to its highest level since November.
USDJPY: has been printing below 113.61, the 4mn poc, in a weak price location since early March.
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