emini analysis 25th July 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Please read previous comments. ES reached a new all-time-high last week. Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) has been marked twice in the last seven days and ES has auctioned higher so this is Effective Buying. As long as ES holds above 2436.50, the 3mn poc, it is in a strong LT price location. First sign of minor dayframe weakness would be a Value Area printed below 2456.50, the minor (12day) poc.
First Level Support = 2436.50 (3mn poc)
Second Level Support = 2384 (6mn poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 8.73. The ratio fell to 8.30 on Wednesday which was a 38day low. I noted midweek that “The market has rallied strongly for six days to a new high but the ratio has fallen, in the ST that is usually bullish.” On 06/30 the ratio reached 15.21, the highest in the database. The ratio reaching a new high has historically been a warning for the market.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 63% (from 66%), Nasdaq 64% (from 63%), R2000 61% (from 62%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – 06/26 TLT printed its highest level since November but has fallen back from there. Support is at 121.63, the 8mn poc.
Dollar Index: KEY CHART. 07/14 broke below the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc, and then fell sharply. Has today printed its lowest level since June last year.
Gold: in mid-June GLD closed back below 119.84, the maj poc, and has been printing below that level in a weak price location since then. GLD needs to recover this level to regain a strong price location and is currently printing just below that level.
Oil: USO – printing below 10.28, the 4mn poc, in a LT weak price location. On 06/21 USO printed its lowest level since Feb 2016. Key chart.
GBPUSD: as long as chart holds above 1.2478, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location in the LT. In the ST, 1.2936, the 5month poc, is Support and this was tested (but not broken) on Thursday.
EURUSD: in April EURUSD tested the Support at 1.0597, the 7mn poc, and held. Has rallied from there and is currently printing above 1.1329, the maj poc which is now Support. Has today printed its highest level since early 2015.
USDJPY: The 12mn poc Support at 111.30 was broken yesterday but has been recovered today .
click graphic to enlarge
