emini analysis 27th July 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Please read previous comments. ES reached a new all-time-high again this week, as did SPY and IWM. Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) has been marked twice in the last nine days and ES has auctioned higher so this is Effective Buying. As long as ES holds above 2436.50, the 3mn poc, it is in a strong LT price location. First sign of minor dayframe weakness would be a Value Area printed below 2456.50, the v minor (14day) poc.
First Level LT Support = 2436.50 (3mn poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 8.97. The ratio fell to 8.30 last week which was a 38day low. I noted midweek that “The market has rallied strongly for six days to a new high but the ratio has fallen and in the ST that is usually bullish”. Currently the ratio remains close to its 5month low (7.75) and SPY just reached a new high. Remembering though that on 06/30 the ratio reached 15.21, the highest in the database and the ratio reaching a new high has historically been a warning for the market.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 65% (from 68%), Nasdaq 64% (from 65%), R2000 64% (from 68%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – 06/26 TLT printed its highest level since November but has fallen back from there. Sharply lower this week. Support is at 121.63, the 8mn poc.
Dollar Index: KEY CHART. 07/14 broke below the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc, and then fell sharply. On Wednesday printed its lowest level since June last year.
Gold: in mid-June GLD closed back below 119.84, the maj poc, and has been printing below that level in a weak price location since then. GLD closed almost at that poc on Wednesday. Price aboive 119.84 would be a strong price location.
Oil: USO – printing below 10.28, the 4mn poc, in a LT weak price location. On 06/21 USO printed its lowest level since Feb 2016 but has rallied strongly from there. Key chart.
GBPUSD: as long as chart holds above 1.278, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location in the LT. In the ST, 1.2936, the 5month poc, is Support – this was tested and held last week. Today chart has printed its highest level since September.
EURUSD: in April EURUSD tested the Support at 1.0597, the 7mn poc, and held. Has rallied from there and is currently printing above 1.1329, the maj poc which is now Support. Has today printed its highest level since early 2015.
USDJPY: The 12mn poc Support is at 111.30 and currently chart prints very close to that level.
click to enlarge graphic
