emini analysis 28th July 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Please read previous comments. Thursday’s sell-off generated a lower, wider, Value Area and Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) was marked. Note that the decline was Supported at the minor 2456.50 poc. Therefore in the longer timeframe this price action can be considered Reactive Selling because the Value Area was generated above that First Level Support. As previously mentioned the “first sign of minor dayframe weakness would be a Value Area printed below 2456.50”.
First Level LT Support = 2436.50 (3mn poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 9.33. The ratio fell to 8.30 on 07/19 which was a 38day low but on 06/30 the ratio reached 15.21, the highest in the database and the ratio reaching a new high has historically been a warning for the market.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 63% (from 65%), Nasdaq 59% (from 64%), R2000 61% (from 64%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – 06/26 TLT printed its highest level since November but has fallen back from there. Sharply lower this week. Support is at 121.63, the 8mn poc.
Dollar Index: KEY CHART. 07/14 broke below the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc, and then fell sharply. On Thursday chart printed its lowest level since June last year.
Gold: in mid-June GLD closed back below 119.84, the maj poc, and has been printing below that level in a weak price location since then. However on Wednesday and Thursday this week GLD probed above that level. Price prinbting time above 119.84 would be a strong price location.
Oil: USO – printing below 10.28, the 4mn poc, in a LT weak price location. On 06/21 USO printed its lowest level since Feb 2016 but has rallied strongly from there. Key chart.
GBPUSD: as long as chart holds above 1.278, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location in the LT. In the ST, 1.2936, the 5month poc, is Support – this was tested and held last week. On Thursday chart printed its highest level since September.
EURUSD: in April EURUSD tested the Support at 1.0597, the 7mn poc, and held. Earlier this month chart found higher low Support at 1.1329, the maj poc and has rallied strongly from there. On Thursday chart printed its highest level since early 2015.
USDJPY: The 12mn poc is at 111.30 and currently chart prints just below that level.
click graphic to enlarge
