emini analysis 28th June 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
See yesterday’s highlighted comments. During Monday’s session the 6wk poc migrated slightly higher to 2436.50. Early in Tuesday’s session that poc was probed and rejected (see chart). ES sold off from there and Aggressive Selling was marked. The controlling price at 2436.50 is the poc of a minor distribution that began in May. The Value Area Low (VAL) of that distribution is at 2415 (dashed line). Overnight 2415l was briefly tested and rejected – pre-open ES prints above 2425. Price acceptance (time) at that level would be a negative. New long trades eliminated for me at least until Significant Buying (green) is marked.
Minor Support/Resistance = 2436.50 (6wk poc)
First Level LT Support = 2384 (5mn poc)
Second Level LT Support = 2353 (poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 13.5. Monday’s ratio at 14.3 was the highest reading I have in my database. The ratio reaching a new high has historically been a warning for the market.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 53% (from 57%), Nasdaq 52% (from 57%), R2000 51% (from 56%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – on Monday TLT printed its highest level since November.
Dollar Index: rallied back from the March low to probe 101.00, the major poc, in early April. That probe into Resistance was rejected. Chart remains in a weak price location. Index has today printed its lowest level since November. Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc.
Gold: closed Tuesday below 119.84, the maj poc. GLD needs to recover this level to regain a strong price location.
Oil: USO – printing below 10.28, the 4mn poc, in a weak price location. Last week the chart printed its lowest level since Feb 2016. Key chart.
GBPUSD: as long as chart holds above 1.2478, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location in the LT.
EURUSD: in April EURUSD tested the Support at 1.0597, the 7mn poc, and held. Has rallied from there. Is today printing just above 1.1329, the maj poc, in a strong price location.
USDJPY: The 12mn poc recently migrated to 111.30 and price relative to that level is now important to monitor. Currently printing above that level.
click to enlarge graphic
