emini analysis 28th March 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Monday’s session generated a lower Value Area. However this attracted some buying, see intraday numbers, and ES closed the session towards the high. What I have just described is an Ineffective Buying Day – intraday buyers active but lower Value Area. If Buyers are going to regain control of the dayframe the first indication will be an Effective Buying Day – active intraday buying and a higher Value Area. The minor (11 day) poc has moved to 2340.50 and price relative to that level may be useful to monitor today. Significant Buying (green) marked above that level would be a positive. In the longer timeframe if ES prints below 2367, the 2month poc, it is in a weak price location.
Resistance = 2367.00 (2month poc)
Possible S/R today = 2340.50 (11 day poc)
Key Chart: IWM is in a weak price location below 136.70, its 2mn poc.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 12.13. On 1st March the ratio reached 14.02, the second highest ratio in the database.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 43% (unch), Nasdaq 43% (from 42%), R2000 37% (from 36%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Supporting Charts
Bonds: TLT – the major poc is at 119.00 and chart broke back above it last week to print in a strong price location. Futures indicate a higher open for TLT today. Key Chart.
Dollar Index: on Monday chart printed its lowest level since November.
Gold: chart has rallied back to the maj poc Resistance at 119.84. Price printing time above this level would be strong price location.
Oil: USO – earlier this month spent four days printing below 11.44, the major poc and then fell sharply to its lowest level since November. Weak price location. Key chart. Oil may be a problem for equities. The Support at 10.06 (1/2R off 2016 low) was reached last week and held. Time printed below that level would further weaken the price location.
GBPUSD: on Monday chart printed its highest level since early February.
EURUSD: on Monday chart printed its highest level since November.
USDJPY: on Monday chart printed its highest level since November.
click graphic to enlarge
