emini analysis 29th June 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
See yesterday’s highlighted comments. Before Tuesday’s session opened there was a rejected test of 2415, the Value Area Low (VAL) of the minor distribution that began in May. Encouragingly that suggests the distribution is still valid and developing. Price acceptance (time) around 2415 would be evidence that this assumption is incorrect and a new distribution (likely down) has begun. Price printing above 2436.50, the poc of the distribution, is strong price location. Note Sentiment though, below.
Minor Support/Resistance = 2436.50 (6wk poc)
First Level LT Support = 2384 (5mn poc)
Second Level LT Support = 2353 (poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 14.76which is the highest reading I have in my database. The ratio reaching a new high has historically been a warning for the market.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 60% (from 53%), Nasdaq 60% (from 52%), R2000 59% (from 51%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – on Monday TLT printed its highest level since November but has fallen back from there.
Dollar Index: rallied back from the March low to probe 101.00, the major poc, in early April. That probe into Resistance was rejected. Chart remains in a weak price locationand has today printed its lowest level since October and very close now to the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc.
Gold: closed Wednesday below 119.84, the maj poc. GLD needs to recover this level to regain a strong price location.
Oil: USO – printing below 10.28, the 4mn poc, in a weak price location. Last week the chart printed its lowest level since Feb 2016 but has rallied from there Key chart.
GBPUSD: as long as chart holds above 1.2478, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location in the LT.
EURUSD: in April EURUSD tested the Support at 1.0597, the 7mn poc, and held. Has rallied from there and is currently printing above 1.1329, the maj poc, in a strong price location.
USDJPY: The 12mn poc recently migrated to 111.30 and price relative to that level is now important to monitor. Currently printing above that level in a strong price location.
click graphic to enlarge
