emini analysis 2nd March 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
On Thursday I marked Aggressive Selling for the second time this week. A Value Area generated below 2686, the 3mn poc, would be a indication of weakness on the longer timeframe, see previous, highlighted, comments. In the ST new long trades are eliminated for me at least until Significant Buying (green) is marked again and I would want to see the Pulse chart improve, currently the Breadth section is negative.
Resistance = 2718.00 (1mn)
Support/Resistance = 2686.00 (3mn) Support = 2581.00 (6mn)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 22% (from 27%), Nasdaq 34% (from 36%), R2000 26% (from 28%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 18.27. Only up slightly from 17.93 but this was on a day when the market was sharply lower. Not usually ST bullish when that happens. The Ratio fell to 10.94 on 02/15, a four month low. The Ratio reached 27.55 on 01/30, the highest in the database.
Bonds: TLT – 02/07 TLT broke below 119.00, the maj poc and has been printing below that level. Closed back above it on Thursday. Bond Sentiment is very bearish at the moment which may set up a contrarian bullish stance but risk of further declines remains high if TLT is below 119.00. Looking for time above that price.
Dollar Index: 12/28 broke below the 1/2R Support off the Sep low and then broke the September low. There is Support at 87.25 which is the 1/2R off 2008 low.
Gold – GLD: The 2mn poc is at 126.60. Price relative to that level is important to monitor.
Oil: USO – 01/25 chart reached its highest level since November 2015 but fell from there with the equity sell-off. Remains in a strong LT price location above 11.41, the maj poc but this week a probe above 12.78, the 3mn poc was rejected.
GBPUSD: The 2mn poc is at 1.3955, and currently the chart prints below that level in a ST weaker position.
EURUSD: is today printing back above 1.2264, the 2mn poc, having broken below that level on Wednesday. Strong price location.
USDJPY: two failed probes into the 113.70 maj poc Resistance in December and has been printing below 111.30, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location since then. Earlier in the month the chart broke below the 1/2R off the 2016 low which further weakened the price location and has today printed its lowest level since Nov 2016.
