emini analysis 2nd October 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Please read previous, highlighted, comments. Overnight ES has reached the mid 2520s. Distributions suggest ES may reach at least temporary exhaustion here which would be indicated by a fast rejection. Turning that on it’s head – price acceptance at this higher level would be bullish.
In any case, as long as ES holds above 2503 (1 month poc) it is in a strong price location in the ST.
Minor Support = 2503 (1mn poc)
First Level LT Support = 2464.00 (3mn poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 8.14, a four month low. On 08/22 the ratio reached 15.64 which is the highest in the database. The ratio reaching a new high has historically been a warning for the market.
Market Charts: Nyse & Nasdaq are positive; R2000 is neutral.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 71%, Nasdaq 74%, R2000 78%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – since mid-May TLT has been printing above 121.63, the 8mn poc, in a strong price location. 09/08 TLT reached its highest level since November but fell back from there to print an eight week low last week.
Dollar Index: 07/14 chart broke below the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc, and then fell sharply – 09/08 printed its lowest level since early 2015. The 3mn poc is at 93.41 (3mn poc) and DX currently prints just above that Resistance.
Gold: 09/07 GLD printed its highest level since September – has retraced from there to print a five week low last week. Major poc is at 119.84 – the important LT Support.
Oil: USO – the major poc is at 10.14 – now major Support. Price had been printing above that level in a stronger price location for a few days and was higher last week, reaching the highest level since late May.
GBPUSD: in August chart tested, then consolidated above 1.2884, the 5mn poc, which put it in a strong price location. Having broken out above the August high two weeks ago, GBPUSD accelerated higher to print its highest level since June 2016. Has now retraced from there and First Level Support is at 1.3234 (1/2R).
EURUSD: in early July EURUSD found higher low Support at 1.1329, the maj poc and rallied strongly from there. 09/08 printed its highest level since Jan 2015 but has retraced from there to print a 28day low last Wednesday.
USDJPY: 111.30 is the 2year poc – for nine days chart has been printing above that level which is now Support. Stronger price location. The 1/2R off the December high is at 112.98 – the chart has probed that minor Resistance but not overcome it.
click to enlarge graphic
