emini analysis 30th December 2016 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Wednesday’s price action was negative. I marked Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) below 2259 (3mn poc) and the Value Area was generated entirely below that level. That red-at-bottom low was tested in Thursday’s session and an overlapping/lower Value Area was generated on low volume. 2259 is now First Level Resistance. Price back above that level would be a positive. Since pre-open Thursday 15th new longs have been eliminated for me, waiting for Significant Buying which hasn’t yet been marked, see previous highlighted comments.
The negative divergence on the minor timeframe between price and momentum appears to be playing out here and as we know the momentum indicator (PriceOsc) has a strong tendency to return to the zero level once it has turned down from an elevated level, see Pulse Chart. The Rydex Ratio has also been a concern recently, see below.
First Level Resistance = 2259.00 (3 month poc)
First Level Support = 2159.50 (6month poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 10.36. Down from 11.72 on Wednesday which was the highest reading since early June 2015.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 71% (from 69%), Nasdaq 66% (from 65%), R2000 76% (unch). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Supporting Charts
Bonds: TLT – 12/14 TLT printed its lowest level since July 2015 but has so far held the major poc Support at 117.15. Time below this level would be worrying.
Dollar Index: 12/20 printed its highest level since April 2003. Has today printed a twelve day low.
Gold: 11/23 GLD broke below 115.69, the 1/2R off last year’s low which put the chart in a weak price location. 12/15 printed its lowest level since January.
Oil: USO – since the start of December USO has been printing above 10.78, the maj poc, in a strong price location. On 12/12 chart printed its highest level since late June.
EURUSD: in early October chart broke below 1.1165, the 4yr poc, and has been in a weak price location since then. 12/20 printed its lowest level since early 2003.
click graphic to enlarge
