emini analysis 30th January 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Last Tuesday ES broke out of its range to a new high. Breadth and Momentum improved and Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked. Wednesday was higher and ES consolidated from there. As long as ES holds above 2265.00 it is in a strong price location.
Dayframe: see Friday’s comments. ES opened above 2293, the 6day poc (dashed line), on Friday and then immediately fell below it. Price relative to this level may be useful to monitor again at the start of this week.
First Level Support = 2265.00 (4 month poc)
Second Level Support = 2159.50 (6month poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 7.63. On 01/03 the ratio reached 11.83, the highest ratio since June 2015.
Market Charts: Nyse, Nasdaq and UK stayed positive. R2000 stayed neutral.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 67%, Nasdaq 58%, R2000 57%, UK 69%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Supporting Charts
Bonds: TLT – two weeks ago the major poc migrated higher to 121.60. TLT has closed below that level for seven consecutive days days which is weak price location. TLT must print back above that poc to regain a strong position.
Dollar Index: On 01/03 the index printed its highest level since April 2003. Off from there and printed a 35 day low on Thursday. Currently printing a six day high.
Gold: 11/23 GLD broke below 115.69, the 1/2R off last year’s low which put the chart in a weak price location. This Resistance was probed last week but GLD is off from there. Cash gold also stalled at 1210.38, its equivalent 1/2R Resistance, and is printing down from that level.
Oil: USO – at the end of last week the major poc migrated higher from 10.78 to 11.44. Price relative to 11.44 is now important to monitor.
EURUSD: in early October chart broke below 1.1165, the 4yr poc, and has been in a weak price location since then. On 01/03 printed its lowest level since early 2003.
click graphic to enlarge
