emini analysis 31st August 2016 – pre-open from Chartprofit
During Friday’s session we saw a swift decline to briefly test the 2158.50 poc. This test was rejected and ES rallied back with Monday’s Value Area being printed above 2177.50, the current controlling price. Tuesday’s VA was printed below that level. ES is oscillating around that poc which often happens when the market is anticipating an important event – in this case, Friday’s jobs data. I will view Significant Buying (green) marked above 2177.50 as a positive. Price printing time below the proven Support at 2158.50 would be a negative.
First Level S/R = 2177.50
Second Level Support = 2158.50
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 63% (from 65%), Nasdaq 69% (unch), R2000 70% (from 69%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 7.67. Friday’s ratio at 7.9 was a seven month high.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT – for three weeks now chart has found Resistance to every probe above 140.30, the min 1/2R off the July high. Price printing time above this level would be a positive. There is Support at 139.00, the 4mn poc. A break above or below these levels could weel indicate the next directional move – possibly following Friday’s jobs data?
Dollar Index: The 1/2R off the May low comes in at 94.76 which is the same level as the 4mn poc. Currently UDX is printing above this level in a stronger price location. Chart has almost reached the Resistance at 96.21 which is the 1/2R off last year’s high.
Gold: GLD closed on Monday below 128.13, the minor 1/2R off the July high in a weak price location and on Tuesday closed at its lowest level since June. In the LT as long as the chart holds above 118.22 (maj poc) it is in a strong price location.
Oil: USO – closed on Tuesday just below 10.78, the 18mn poc, in a weaker price location and futures indicate a lower open today.
EURUSD: on Tuesday chart broke below 1.1170, the 4yr poc. There is Support lower at 1.1083, 1/2R of last year’s low.
click graphic to enlarge
