emini analysis 31st August 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Please read yesterday’s highlighted comments. Wednesday generated another (7th) Value Area generated entirely 2436.50, the 7mn poc. Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked. As long as ES holds above the poc it is in a strong price location. The minor three month Value Area High is at 2457.50 (dashed line) and price acceptance at this higher level would suggest another distribution (up) has begun. Pulse Chart confirmation would be daily price momentum for SPY turning positive and the Nyse Breadth indicator turning green.
First Level Support = 2436.50 (7mn poc)
Sentiment: Note – My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio fell to 8.54 on Monday, a 28 day low, having reached 15.64 on 08/22, the highest in the database (the ratio reaching a new high has historically been a warning for the market). Wednesday’s ratio was higher at 11.65.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 44% (from 42%), Nasdaq 41% (from 38%), R2000 37% (from 34%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – since mid-May TLT has been printing above 121.63, the 8mn poc, in a strong price location.
Dollar Index: 07/14 chart broke below the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc, and then fell sharply – on Tuesday the index printed its lowest level since January 2015. Has rallied for two days and there is Resistance at 93.41.
Gold: for sixteen days GLD has been printing above 119.84, the maj poc in a strong LT price location. On Tuesday Gold reached its highest level since November.
Oil: USO – the major poc is at 10.14. USO is printing below that level in a weak price location.
GBPUSD: as long as chart holds above 1.2780, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location in the LT. And in the ST as long as charts holds above 1.2884, the 5mon poc, it is in a strong price location. That level is being tested today.
EURUSD: in early July EURUSD found higher low Support at 1.1329, the maj poc and has rallied strongly from there. On Tuesday chart reached its highest level since Jan 2015.
USDJPY – Key Chart: 111.30 is the 2year poc – Chart prints below that level in a weak price location. The 108.87 Support (1/2R off 2016 low) was broken on Tuesday but chart quickly recovered.
click graphic to enlarge
