emini analysis 3rd July 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Please read previous highlighted comments. The 6wk poc remains at 2436.50 – price relative to that level is important to monitor. Thirty minutes pre-open today ES prints below that level. The 6wk Value Area Low (VAL) is still at 2415 (dashed line). Although time was spent below that VAL during Thursday’s session, ES quickly recovered. I’m thinking that as long as the 6wk poc remains at 2436.50 then any test of 2415 should be rejected. If that failed to occur and price was accepted in the area of 2415 then it would likely indicate a new distribution had begun and that would be a negative. See Sentiment below.
Minor Resistance = 2436.50 (6wk poc)
First Level LT Support = 2384 (5mn poc)
Second Level LT Support = 2353 (poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 15.20, the highest ratio in the database. The ratio reaching a new high has historically been a warning for the market.
Market Charts: Nyse stayed negative; Nasdaq and R2000 stayed neutral; UK stayed negative.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 56%, Nasdaq 57%, R2000 56%, UK 40%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – last week TLT printed its highest level since November but has fallen back from there.
Dollar Index: KEY CHART. On Friday printed its lowest level since October and tested the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc. Up off that level today. Price printing time below 95.57 would be a negative.
Gold: closed Friday below 119.84, the maj poc. GLD needs to recover this level to regain a strong price location.
Oil: USO – printing below 10.28, the 4mn poc, in a weak price location. USO recently printed its lowest level since Feb 2016 but has rallied from there. Key chart.
GBPUSD: as long as chart holds above 1.2478, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location in the LT.
EURUSD: in April EURUSD tested the Support at 1.0597, the 7mn poc, and held. Has rallied from there and is currently printing above 1.1329, the maj poc which is now Support.
USDJPY: The 12mn poc recently migrated to 111.30 and price relative to that level is now important to monitor. Currently printing above that level in a strong price location.
click graphic to enlarge
