emini analysis 4th April 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Tuesday’s session found Resistance at 2611, the minor (15day) poc, see yesterday’s comments above. This level is useful to monitor re ST strength/weakness. Following the failed probe above 2760, the major Value Area high, the 7month poc migrated to 2725.00 on 03/20, see last Wednesday’s highlighted comments. I wrote “the migration of an important poc will often occur just before a new directional move begins so it is now important to monitor price relative to that level”. ES remains in a weak price location if prints below 2725, the 7month poc. The last eight Value Areas have been printed below that level. It is possible that the poc could migrate and give us a new level to key from but currently ES is in a weak location.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 29% (from 23%), Nasdaq 33% (from 26%), R2000 34% (from 28%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 17.38. The Rydex traders have not registered any measurable fear over the last two weeks as the market has fallen. As I said in the video two weeks ago “the retail investor may have learned the lesson that every dip should be bought” and therefore they remain complacent. That’s concerning. The Ratio fell to 10.94 during February’s sell-off, a four month low.
Bonds: TLT – closed above 119.00, the maj poc. There is little difference between the pocs at 119 and 121 in terms of time, so I would want to seee TLT printing time above 121 to confirm strength and before assuming a change of trend higher.
Dollar Index: the 5mn poc is at 89.88. The Index is today printing just above that level. There is Support at 87.25 which is the 1/2R off 2008 low.
Gold – GLD: is printing above 125.23, the 4mn poc, which keeps it in a strong price location.
Oil: USO – on 01/25 the chart reached its highest level since November 2015. Chart equalled that high last week. Is in a strong LT price location as long as it prints above 11.41.
GBPUSD: has again probed 1.4212, the major Value Area High. In January a probe into the VAH was rejected but price acceptance would be bullish. Chart currently prints above 1.3965, the 5mn poc, in a strong price location.
EURUSD: the 3mn poc is at 1.2264, and chart currently prints just above that level.
USDJPY: two failed probes into the 113.70 maj poc Resistance in December and has been printing below 111.30, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location since then. Last month the chart broke below the 1/2R off the 2016 low which further weakened the price location and on 03/26 printed its lowest level since November 2016.
