emini analysis 4th August 2016 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Wednesday’s session generated a higher, narrower Value Area. All price action took place within the range of Tuesday’s range, i.e. an inside day. Overnight the 2month poc migrated slightly to 2158.50. Price relative to that level should be a good guide to ST strength/weakness. Significant Buying (green) marked above that poc would be a positive. As long as chart hold the Major poc at 2087 it is in a strong price location in the LT.
First Level Support/Resistance = 2158.50 (2mn poc)
Support = 2087.00 (major poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 65% (from 62%), Nasdaq 65% (from 62%), R2000 66% (from 63%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 5.98. Tuesday’s ratio at 6.05 was a six month high.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: On Monday TLT closed in a weaker price location below 140.30, the min 1/2R off the July high and is lower from there. on Tuesday. More important Support is at 130.77 (3year poc).
Dollar Index: has this week tested the important Support at 95.25 (2yr poc) and has so far held.
Gold: On Monday GLD closed in a strong price location above 128.13, the minor 1/2R off the July high and is higher from there. In the LT as long as the chart holds above 118.22 (maj poc) it is in a strong price location.
Oil: USO – the 9mn poc is at 10.78 and the 1/2R off February’s low is at 10.06. USO closed below both levels on Wednesday. Weak price location although yesterday was a strong day.
EURUSD: Currently printing below 1.1313, the 4yr poc, but above 1.11, the 1/2R off last year’s low.
click graphic to enlarge
