emini analysis 4th October 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) marked again on Tuesday.In the last 30 days Significant Buying (green) has been marked five times and Significant Selling (red) has not been marked at all. The market is higher across this period of time so this is Effective Buying. I thought the current levels may bring a Response from the Sellers (see Monday’s comments) but nothing markable from them so far. In any event, as long as ES holds above 2503 (1 month poc) it is in a strong price location in the ST.
Minor Support = 2503 (1mn poc)
First Level LT Support = 2464.00 (3mn poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 8.63. Up from Monday’s ratio at 6.96, an eight month low – and as I wrote yesterday “this, as the market is making new highs. In the short-term at least this is not normally bearish”. On 08/22 the ratio reached 15.64 which is the highest in the database.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 76% (from 74%), Nasdaq 76% (from 77%), R2000 82% (from 81%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – since mid-May TLT has been printing above 121.63, the 8mn poc, in a strong price location. 09/08 TLT reached its highest level since November but fell back from there to print an eight week low last week.
Dollar Index: 07/14 chart broke below the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc, and then fell sharply – 09/08 printed its lowest level since early 2015. The 3mn poc is at 93.41 (3mn poc) and DX currently prints just below that level.
Gold: 09/07 GLD printed its highest level since September – has retraced from there to print a six week low. Major poc is at 119.84 – the important LT Support.
Oil: USO – the major poc is at 10.14 – now major Support. Price had been printing above that level in a stronger price location for a few days and was higher last week, reaching the highest level since late May. USO is lower this week but has held that Support, so far.
GBPUSD: in August chart tested, then consolidated above 1.2884, the 5mn poc, which put it in a strong price location. Having broken out above the August high two weeks ago, GBPUSD accelerated higher to print its highest level since June 2016. Has now retraced from there and the First Level Support at 1.3234 (1/2R) is being tested.
EURUSD: in early July EURUSD found higher low Support at 1.1329, the maj poc and rallied strongly from there. 09/08 printed its highest level since Jan 2015 but has retraced from there to print a 33day low on Tuesday.
USDJPY: 111.30 is the 2year poc – for twelve days chart has been printing above that level which is now Support. Stronger price location. The 1/2R off the December high is at 112.98 – the chart has probed that minor Resistance but not overcome it.
click to enlarge graphic
