emini analysis 5th April 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Dayframe: see Wednesday’s highlighted comments. Thursday’s session was similar to Wednesday’s. A rejected test below 2380 (dashed line) – the VAL of the one month distribution and a Value Area printed above that level. Currently ES is still finding the one month poc at 2385 attractive. Significant Buying (green) marked above this level would be a big positive.
In the LT as long as ES holds above 2353 (3month poc) it is in a strong price location.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 10.66. On 1st March the ratio reached 14.02, the second highest ratio in the database.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 50% (from 51%), Nasdaq 56% (from 55%), R2000 54% (unch). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – this week has dipped back below 121.63, the 8mn poc. Price printing time below this level would be an indication of weakness. Key Chart.
Dollar Index: rallied back from the March low to probe 101.00, the major poc, in early April. That probe into Resistance was rejected. Chart remains in a weak price location.
Gold: has this week broken below119.84, the maj poc, and also below 119.07, the 1/2R off last year’s high. Weak price location.
Oil: USO – The Support at 10.06 (1/2R off 2016 low) was reached mid-March and held. USO rallied from there but re-tested and broke that level on Tuesday. Bulls would want to see USO back above that level. If not Oil could become a problem for equituies. Key chart.
GBPUSD: In the LT, as long as chart holds above above 1.2478, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location. Printed a six month high last week.
EURUSD: earlier in the month chart tested the Support at 1.0597, the 7mn poc, and held. Chart is in a strong price location above that level and has today printed its highest level since November.
USDJPY: has been printing below 113.61, the 4mn poc, in a weak price location since early March. Chart has rallied and is now approaching that Resistance.
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