emini analysis 5th December 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Friday’s session was volatile with a sharp sell-off being almost completely retraced by the close. Monday’s session generated a higher Value Area with ES printing another all-time-high. First sign of LT weakness would be a Value Area printed below 2573.50, the 3mn poc – hopefully a minor poc of some importance will emerge over the next few days to give a closer level to monitor for minor strenth/weakness. Significant Selling (red) has not been marked for 75 days.
First Level LT Support = 2573.50 (3mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 67% (from 68%), Nasdaq 56% (from 60%), R2000 62% (from 64%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 16.56 having reached 18.34 on 10/31, the highest ratio in the database.
Bonds: TLT – the 10mn poc Support is at 124.40. Last week this Support was closely approached but has held so far.
Dollar Index: in early July chart broke below 95.50, the major poc Support. 11/22 the index broke back below 93.46, the 8mn poc, and this level, now Resistance, was probed (but not exceeded) last week.
Gold: in early October GLD briefly tested the Major Support at 119.84. Has held since them. As long as chart holds above this level it is in a strong price location.
Oil: USO – As I anticipated it might, last week the major poc migrated higher to 11.41. The migration of a maj poc often preceeds a directional move so price relative to this level now needs to be monitored closely.
GBPUSD: currently printing above 1.3234 (1/2R) in a strong price location. The 9mn poc is at 1.2925 and this is LT Support.
EURUSD: chart is printing above 1.1755, the 1year poc in a strong price location.
USDJPY: Key Chart – over the last few days chart has tested the Support at 111.30, the 2year poc. Has so far held this level.
click graphic to enlarge
