emini analysis 5th October 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Significant Selling (red) has not been marked for 31 days. Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) has been marked five times and the market is higher across this period so this is Effective Buying. I thought the current levels may bring a Response from the Sellers (see Monday’s comments) but nothing markable from them so far. In any event, as long as ES holds above 2503 (1 month poc) it is in a strong price location in the ST.
Minor Support = 2503 (1mn poc)
First Level LT Support = 2464.00 (3mn poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 8.73. Up from Monday’s ratio at 6.96, an eight month low – and as I wrote”this, as the market is making new highs. In the short-term at least this is not normally bearish”. On 08/22 the ratio reached 15.64 which is the highest in the database.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 77% (from 76%), Nasdaq 78% (from 76%), R2000 82% (unch). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – 09/08 TLT reached its highest level since November but has retraced from there to print a nine week low last week.
Dollar Index: 07/14 chart broke below the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc, and then fell sharply – 09/08 printed its lowest level since early 2015. The 3mn poc is at 93.41 (3mn poc) and DX currently prints just above that level.
Gold: 09/07 GLD printed its highest level since September – has retraced from there to print a six week low. Major poc is at 119.84 – the important LT Support.
Oil: USO – Last week USO reached the highest level since late May but has declined from there. Chart closed on Wednesday just below the 10.14, the major poc Support.
GBPUSD: 09/20 GBPUSD printed its highest level since June 2016. Has now retraced from there and has today broken First Level Support at 1.3234 (1/2R).
EURUSD: in early July EURUSD found higher low Support at 1.1329, the maj poc and rallied strongly from there. 09/08 printed its highest level since Jan 2015 but has retraced from there to print a 33day low on Tuesday.
USDJPY: 111.30 is the 2year poc – for twelve days chart has been printing above that level which is now Support. Stronger price location. The 1/2R off the December high is at 112.98 – the chart has probed that minor Resistance but has not overcome it.
click graphic to enlarge
