emini analysis 6th April 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Wednesday’s session represented a rejected probe above 2367 (which was the 2month poc). The poc (now 3month) has migrated to 2360.00 and this is now the important level to monitor. This is the poc of a distribution that began in February. The Value Area Low (VAL) of that distribution is currently at 2342.00 (dashed line). If the distribution is still current and developing, we could expect Support around that level – overnight it has been tested. However, if price prints time below 2342 then it would indicate a new development is taking place. Either way, if price is below the 2360 poc it is in a weak price location. Breadth numbers weakened again, see below, Bulls would want to see these numbers back above 50.
Resistance = 2360.00 (3month poc)
Key Chart: IWM – Chart closed below 135.00, the 2mn poc. This is weak location.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 9.0, a 27day low. On 1st March the ratio reached 14.02, the second highest ratio in the database.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 44% (from 47%), Nasdaq 39% (from 44%), R2000 35% (from 41%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – The 8mn poc migrated to 121.63 last week and TLT has stalled at that level this week. This is the controlling price of the current distribution. Price printing time above that point would be a stronger price location. Chart is printing above 119.00, the major poc, which is the important Support to monitor. Key Chart.
Dollar Index: rallied last week but is still printing below 101.00, the major poc, in a weak price location.
Gold: chart has rallied back to 119.84, the maj poc. Found Resistance there in February, again in March and currently as well. Price printing time above this level would be strong location.
Oil: USO – The Support at 10.06 (1/2R off 2016 low) was reached mid-March and held. USO rallied last week and this and on Wednesday probed 10.84, the 1/2R Resistance off last year’s high. In the LT if chart is printing below 11.44, the major poc it is in a weak price location. Key chart.
GBPUSD: last week the chart found Support at 1.2375, the 1/2R off Dec high. Currently printing just below 1.2478, the maj poc. Price printing time above this level would be stronger location.
EURUSD: lower recently but still holding above 1.0597, the 7mn poc, in a strong price location.
USDJPY: printing below 113.61, the 4mn poc, in a weak price location.
click to enlarge graphic
