emini analysis 7th July 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Please read previous highlighted comments. Exact high of Monday’s short session was the Resistance at 2436.50, see chart. The 6wk Value Area Low (VAL) is at 2418 (dashed line). Price at, and below, this level was accepted on Thursday which is a negative indication. Also, Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) was marked yesterday. I’m cautious here especially in light of the recent Sentiment extreme, see below.
Resistance = 2436.50 (6wk poc)
First Level LT Support = 2384 (5mn poc)
Second Level LT Support = 2353 (poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 14.55. A week ago the ratio reached 15.20, which is the highest in the database. The ratio reaching a new high has historically been a warning for the market.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 49% (from 57%), Nasdaq 47% (from 57%), R2000 48% (from 59%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – last week TLT printed its highest level since November but has fallen back from there.
Dollar Index: KEY CHART. Last the index printed its lowest level since October and tested the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc. Up off that level. Price printing time below 95.57 would be a negative.
Gold: in mid-June GLD closed back below 119.84, the maj poc, and has been printing below that level in a weak price location since then. GLD needs to recover this level to regain a strong price location.
Oil: USO – printing below 10.28, the 4mn poc, in a LT weak price location. On 06/21 USO printed its lowest level since Feb 2016 but has rallied from there. Key chart.
GBPUSD: as long as chart holds above 1.2478, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location in the LT.
EURUSD: in April EURUSD tested the Support at 1.0597, the 7mn poc, and held. Has rallied from there and is currently printing above 1.1329, the maj poc which is now Support.
USDJPY: The 12mn poc recently migrated to 111.30 and price relative to that level is now important to monitor. Currently printing above that level in a strong price location.
click to enlarge graphic
