emini analysis 8th March 2017
Tuesday saw an early probe up towards the minor Resistance at 2375 (see yesterday’s comments), but ES declined from there. The session generated a fourth consecutive lower Value Area. There’s been negative tick readings on each day and therefore with price falling, the dayframe selling has been Effective. In the longer timeframe ES is holding First Level Support at 2360, in fact overnight there was an extremely brief test of that Support. Effective Selling marked below 2360 would indicate something more serious in the longer timeframe. This is a possibility considering the recent Sentiment excesses, see below.
First Level Support = 2360.00 (25 day poc)
Momentum (PricxeOsc) for all four major ETFs, although still positive, has turned down. IWM has been printing above 136.70, the 2mn poc, for three weeks but yesterday closed almost on that Support chart must hold this level to maintain a strong price location. Also note that daily Nyse Breadth has turned neutral, see Pulse chart.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 11.55. Down from 14.02 recorded last Wednesday. There is only one ratio higher than this in the database. Another extreme last week came in the Investor’s Intelligence surveywith Bulls% reaching 63.1%, the highest since 1987.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 52% (from 56%), Nasdaq 45% (from 51%), R2000 40% (from 46%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – the major poc is at 119.00. Since early January the chart was consolidating above that Support but has closed below it on Monday and Tuesday. KEY chart.
Dollar Index: found Resistance twice in February at 101.52, the 1/2R off the Jan high. Chart broke back above that level last week and is printing above it this week.
Gold: in early February GLD broke back above 115.69, the 1/2R off last year’s low, and has since held above that level. Last week the chart briefly probed above the Resistance at 119.84, the major poc, but has so far been rejected from that level and has fallen back to the 115.69 Support which it must hold.
Oil: USO – the major poc is at 11.44 and is important to monitor. USO closed below that level on Tuesday.
GBPUSD: the 15mn poc is at 1.2478. Chart has been printing below that level for seven days and has today printed a 36day low.
EURUSD: chart is printing below 1.0597, the 7mn poc in a weaker price location.
USDJPY: The 1/2R off the 2015 high comes in at 112.47. Chart is currently printing above that level.
click to enlarge graphic
