emini at critical point – pre-open Thursday 10th November
Recap: Key chart IWM held 115.35, its major poc Support and SPY held 209.90, its major poc Support (apart from a test late last week). There was extreme volatility late Tuesday as ES plummeted below 2030 and subsequently rallied all the way back – closing strongly higher for the day. But most importantly the 6month poc has migrated to 2159.50. The current distribution began in June and 2159.50 is a logical price for the poc to emerge as the distribution completes. This suggests that a new distribution (directional move) may be about to begin and so price relative to 2159.50 is extremely important. ES has shown strong resilience and bounced a long way back but price below that level would not confirm strength. Best outcome and a big positive would be Significant Buying (green) printed above that poc.
Support/Resistance = 2159.50.00 (now 6month poc)
Second Level Support = 2106.50 (1/2R off August high)
Major poc = 2087.00
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 51% (from 42%), Nasdaq 50% (from 38%), R2000 55% (from 39%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 6.43. On 08/26 the ratio reached 7.90, the highest ratio for the last ten months.
Supporting Charts
Bonds: TLT – At the end of September there was a rejected probe of the 4mn poc Resistance at 139.00. Chart fell sharply from there. On Monday and Tuesday this week TLT closed below 130.77, the 3year poc in a weak price location and on Wednesday fell more than 4%.
Dollar Index: extremely volatile move late Tuesday as per the equity futures. Dollar index fell heavily but recovered and is printing back at recent highs.
Gold: Held the major poc Support at 119.84 and has rallied to test 124.78, the 1/2R Resistance off the July high. Price above this level would be strong location.
Oil: USO – USO broke below 10.78, the 18mn poc, at the end of October and has fallen sharply from there. The 1/2R off the Feb low is at 10.06 and USO has not yet broken this Support significantly. This is a Key Chart and a Key Level.
EURUSD: is today printing below 1.1083, the major 1/2R in a weak price location.
click chart to enlarge
