emini ES 12th December 2019 – pre-open from ChartProfit
ST: By very strictly applying my rules, I had to mark Aggressive Selling on Monday. A session close above Monday’s high, 3149.50, would negate any ST negative implications of that red-at-bottom low. Either way, there is minor Support at 3113.75, the 1/2R off Nov high, (dotted line) and as long as ES prints above that level it is in a ST strong position.
LT: Last week ES tested the 3083 Support and rallied back, see highlighted comments from 3rd Dec. That was positive price action.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 67% (from 66%), Nasdaq 65% (from 64%), R2000 67% (unch). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was at 20.44 on Tuesday. Wednesday’s data not yet available. The ratio reached 21.82 last week, a 4month high. On 14th Oct the ratio fell to 6.50, the lowest since January.
Bonds – TLT: The 5mn poc is at 139.95. TLT closed below that level on Wednesday.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 – is today printing below that level. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. There is Support at 97.00 (3yr poc) and this has held so far.
Gold: Found Resistance three times recently at 143 (major 1/2R) and declined from there to its lowest level since early August.
Oil: a strong rally last week means that USO is now printing above 11.95, 1/2R off 2016 low, and is in a strong position if that level is held.
GBPUSD: has rallied strongly from early October and is now printing above 1.3130, the major poc. Strong position if that level holds.
EURUSD: In early October chart printed its lowest level since May 2017. Rallied from there, and is currently printing above the 1/2R level off that low.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 – is today printing below that level. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. There is Support at 97.00 (3yr poc) and this has held so far.
Gold: Found Resistance three times recently at 143 (major 1/2R) and declined from there to its lowest level since early August.
Oil: a strong rally last week means that USO is now printing above 11.95, 1/2R off 2016 low, and is in a strong position if that level is held.
GBPUSD: has rallied strongly from early October and is now printing above 1.3130, the major poc. Strong position if that level holds.
EURUSD: In early October chart printed its lowest level since May 2017. Rallied from there, and is currently printing above the 1/2R level off that low.
