emini ES 13th December 2019 – pre-open from ChartProfit
ST: Following Monday’s Aggressive Selling I wrote that a “session close above Monday’s high, 3149.50, would negate any ST negative implications of that red-at-bottom low”, see Tuesday’s highlighted comments. On Thursday we saw a session close above that high. I also wrote that “as long as ES prints above that level (3113.75) it is in a ST strong position”. That Support has not been tested.
LT: Last week ES tested the 3083 Support and rallied back. That was positive price action.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 70% (from 67%), Nasdaq 68% (from 65%), R2000 69% (from 67%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 20.03. The ratio has fallen this week with SPX strongly higher, this is usually a bullish pattern in the ST. The ratio reached 21.82 last week, a 4month high. On 14th Oct the ratio fell to 6.50, the lowest since January.
Bonds – TLT: The 5mn poc is at 139.95. TLT closed below that level on Thursday. Weak position.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and failed at that Resistance. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. The Support at 97.00 (3yr poc) has now been broken.
Gold: Found Resistance three times recently at 143 (major 1/2R) and declined from there to its lowest level since early August.
Oil: a strong rally last week means that USO is now printing above 11.95, 1/2R off 2016 low, and is in a strong position if that level is held.
GBPUSD: has rallied strongly from early October and has today printed its highest level since May 2018.The major poc at 1.3130 is now important Support.
EURUSD: In early October chart printed its lowest level since May 2017. Rallied from there, and has today probed the poc Resistance at 1.120.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and failed at that Resistance. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. The Support at 97.00 (3yr poc) has now been broken.
Gold: Found Resistance three times recently at 143 (major 1/2R) and declined from there to its lowest level since early August.
Oil: a strong rally last week means that USO is now printing above 11.95, 1/2R off 2016 low, and is in a strong position if that level is held.
GBPUSD: has rallied strongly from early October and has today printed its highest level since May 2018.The major poc at 1.3130 is now important Support.
EURUSD: In early October chart printed its lowest level since May 2017. Rallied from there, and has today probed the poc Resistance at 1.120.
