emini ES 1st April 2019 – pre-open from ChartProfit
Early in March there was a rejected probe of the major Value Area High (VAH) at 2818 (dashed line). There has now been another probe above the VAH that “may” be rejected again. Bulls would want to see acceptance (time) at this level or above, which would be a bullish indication. First Level Support is at 2792.50, the 3mn poc. Price printing time below that level would be the first sign of weakness. In the longer-term as long as ES holds 2718 (maj) it remains in a strong LT price location.
Dayframe: a minor (1mn) poc has developed at 2817.50. Price relative to this level could be used as a guide to ST strength/weakness.
Market Charts: All major Market Charts are positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 56%, Nasdaq 50%, R2000 47%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 18.97. Down from 20.19 on 03/18, a 4 month high. On 9th Jan the ratio fell to 5.54, the lowest since July 2016. Down from 27.5 in early September.
Bonds – TLT: on Thursday TLT printed its highest level since December ’17.
Dollar Index: last week was printing back above 96.38 (the minor 1/2R off December high). Needs to hold this level to maintain a strong position in the ST but as long as index prints above 94.80 (maj) it is in a strong position in the LT.
Gold: GLD – All year GLD has been consolidating above 121, the major Support. This could be a powerful pattern and lead to higher prices, especially if the dollar starts to weaken. GLD was sharply lower at the end of last week and needs to hold 121 to retain a strong position.
Oil: USO – tested 11.41, the Major Poc Support on 03/08. Formed a higher low at that Support and last week rallied to close at its highest level since November. This is an important chart. If USO is printing above 11.41 it is a positive for risk-on.
GBPUSD: likely to be volatile and needs to recover above 1.3130 to be in a strong position.
EURUSD: price relative to 1.131, the maj poc, is most important to monitor and currently chart is printing below this level in a weak position.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 112.60. Chart has approached (but not exceeded) that Resistance. Still in a weak position.
