emini ES 28th March 2019 – from Chartprofit
Early in March there was a rejected probe of the major Value Area High (VAH) at 2818 (dashed line). There has now been another probe above the VAH that “may” be rejected again. Bulls would want to see acceptance (time) at this level or above, which would be a bullish indication.
On Wednesday, the 3mn poc migrated higher to 2792.50. This is now Support and yesterday’s session low. Price printing time below that level would be the first sign of weakness in the ST. In the longer-term as long as ES holds 2718 (maj) it remains in a strong LT price location.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 52% (unch), Nasdaq 48% (from 49%), R2000 45% (unch). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 18.21. The ratio reached 20.19 on 03/19, a 5 month high. On 9th Jan the ratio fell to 5.54, the lowest since July 2016. Down from 27.5 in early September.
Bonds – TLT: on Wednesday printed its highest level since December ’17.
Dollar Index: this week has been printing back above 96.38 (the minor 1/2R off December high). Needs to hold this level to maintain a strong position in the ST but as long as index prints above 94.80 (maj) it is in a strong position in the LT.
Gold: GLD – All year GLD has been consolidating above 121, the major Support. This could be a powerful pattern and lead to higher prices, especially if the dollar starts to weaken.
Oil: USO – tested 11.41, the Major Poc Support on 03/08. Formed a higher low at that Support and last week rallied to close at its highest level since November. This is an important chart. If USO is printing above 11.41 it is a positive for risk-on.
GBPUSD: lower today and likely to be volatile but needs to hold 1.3130 to stay in a strong position.
EURUSD: price relative to 1.131, the maj poc, is most important to monitor and currently chart is printing below this level in a weak position.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 112.60. Chart has approached (but not exceeded) that Resistance. Still in a weak position.
