emini ES 3rd January 2020 – pre-open from ChartProfit
See yesterday’s highlighted comments. All looked good through yesterday’s day session, a higher Value Area was generated and Aggressive Buying (green) was marked, but there was a violent reversal overnight and pre-open today ES has printed below the low of last week. Aggressive Buyers on 12/26 were disrupted by lower Value Areas generated this week and it looks likely that yesterday’s Buying was a false break. There have been warnings from Sentiment, see below, but the question is, will Significant Sellers (almost absent since the October low) step in here and take control below 3228, the 6wk poc, or can Buyers auction ES back above that level (now Resistance)?
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 70% (from 73%), Nasdaq 70% (from 68%), R2000 64% (from 65%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 24.68. Last week the ratio reached 28.62, the highest reading in my database. Only twice before has the ratio printed above 26. Once in Jan 2018 and the market sold-off quickly, and once in Aug 2018 after which the market traded sideways for a month and then sold-off.
Bonds – TLT: The 5mn poc is at 139.95. TLT closed below that level on Thursday. Weak position.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and failed at that Resistance. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. The 3yr poc migrated to 97.38 in December and price below that level would be a weak location.
Gold: Found Resistance three times in Oct/Nov at 143 (major 1/2R) but on ThursdayGLD closed above that level in a strong position.
Oil: USO rallied back above 11.95, 1/2R off 2016 low, earlier in the month. It is in a strong position if that level is held.
GBPUSD: rallied strongly from early October. In December the major poc migrated to 1.2933 and GBPUSD needs to hold that Support to remain in a strong position – GBPUSD rallied from a test of that Support on 12/24.
EURUSD: has probed the 1.12 poc this week. Currently printing below that level.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and failed at that Resistance. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. The 3yr poc migrated to 97.38 in December and price below that level would be a weak location.
Gold: Found Resistance three times in Oct/Nov at 143 (major 1/2R) but on ThursdayGLD closed above that level in a strong position.
Oil: USO rallied back above 11.95, 1/2R off 2016 low, earlier in the month. It is in a strong position if that level is held.
GBPUSD: rallied strongly from early October. In December the major poc migrated to 1.2933 and GBPUSD needs to hold that Support to remain in a strong position – GBPUSD rallied from a test of that Support on 12/24.
EURUSD: has probed the 1.12 poc this week. Currently printing below that level.
