emini ES 4th December 2019 – pre-open from ChartProfit
Aggressive Buying was marked three times last week but Monday’s session close was below last week’s low which indicated that Buyers had been disrupted. This is often a first sign of weakness; see Monday’s highlighted comments on chart. First Level Support is at 3083, the 1 month poc, and on Tuesday this Support was tested. Pre-open today ES prints back above 3100. Effective Selling marked below 3083 would be a sign of weakness in the longer time-frame. Bulls would want to see Effective Buying marked above that level.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 55% (from 57%), Nasdaq 58% (from 62%), R2000 57% (from 60%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 21.8, a four month high. This on a day when the market fell – not usually a bullish pattern in the ST. On 14th Oct the ratio fell to 6.50, the lowest since January.
Bonds – TLT: The 5mn poc migrated to 139.95 last week and on Monday TLT closed below that level in a weak position. However on Tuesday there was a strong rally and TLT closed back above that level.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 – is today printing below that level. As IU have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. There is Support at 97.00 (3yr poc) and this has held so far.
Gold: Found Resistance three times recently at 143 (major 1/2R) and declined from there to its lowest level since early August.
Oil: the major Support is at 11.41 (maj poc). USO closed at 11.67 on Monday.
GBPUSD: rallied strongly from early October and then consolidated in a range through November. Today there has been a strong break above that range. GBPUSD is approaching Resistance at 1.3130, the major poc.
EURUSD: In early October chart printed its lowest level since May 2017. Rallied from there, retraced but is today printing above the 1/2R level off that low in a stronger position.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 – is today printing below that level. As IU have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. There is Support at 97.00 (3yr poc) and this has held so far.
Gold: Found Resistance three times recently at 143 (major 1/2R) and declined from there to its lowest level since early August.
Oil: the major Support is at 11.41 (maj poc). USO closed at 11.67 on Monday.
GBPUSD: rallied strongly from early October and then consolidated in a range through November. Today there has been a strong break above that range. GBPUSD is approaching Resistance at 1.3130, the major poc.
EURUSD: In early October chart printed its lowest level since May 2017. Rallied from there, retraced but is today printing above the 1/2R level off that low in a stronger position.
