emini ES 5th December 2019
Aggressive Buying was marked three times last week but Monday’s session close was below last week’s low which indicated that Buyers had been disrupted. This is often a first sign of weakness; see Monday’s highlighted comments on chart. First Level Support is at 3083, the 1 month poc, and on Tuesday this Support was tested. ES rallied back on Wednesday. The minor 1/2R off last week’s high is 3113.75, dotted line. Monitoring price relative to that level would be useful for short term traders. Effective Selling marked below 3083 would be a sign of weakness in the longer time-frame. Bulls would want to see Effective Buying marked above that level.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 60% (from 55%), Nasdaq 61% (from 58%), R2000 61% (from 57%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 19.64. Tuesday’s ratio at 21.8 was a four month high. On 14th Oct the ratio fell to 6.50, the lowest since January.
Bonds – TLT: The 5mn poc migrated to 139.95 last week and on Monday TLT closed below that level in a weak position. However on Tuesday there was a strong rally and on Wednesday TLT closed very close to that level.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 – is today printing below that level. As IU have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. There is Support at 97.00 (3yr poc) and this has held so far.
Gold: Found Resistance three times recently at 143 (major 1/2R) and declined from there to its lowest level since early August.
Oil: a strong rally on Wednesday meant that USO closed above 11.95, 1/2R off 2016 low, in a strong position.
GBPUSD: has rallied strongly from early October and is today probing the major poc Resistance at 1.3130.
EURUSD: In early October chart printed its lowest level since May 2017. Rallied from there, retraced but is today printing above the 1/2R level off that low in a stronger position.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 – is today printing below that level. As IU have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. There is Support at 97.00 (3yr poc) and this has held so far.
Gold: Found Resistance three times recently at 143 (major 1/2R) and declined from there to its lowest level since early August.
Oil: a strong rally on Wednesday meant that USO closed above 11.95, 1/2R off 2016 low, in a strong position.
GBPUSD: has rallied strongly from early October and is today probing the major poc Resistance at 1.3130.
EURUSD: In early October chart printed its lowest level since May 2017. Rallied from there, retraced but is today printing above the 1/2R level off that low in a stronger position.
